Post by Bishopdale Weather on Jan 9, 2016 8:06:25 GMT 12
Tropical cyclone 06p (ula), located approximately 240 nm west of
Suva, Fiji, has tracked west-northwestward at 02 knots over the past
six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows deep
convection over the low level circulation center has been building
over the past six hours, with a sharp edge along the eastern edge,
associated with low levels (10 to 15 knots) of easterly vertical
wind shear (vws), which is supporting the favorable levels of
westerly outflow. Sea surface temperatures (ssts) remain weakly
favorable, in the 27 to 28 degrees celsius range, as tc 06p tracks
slowly westward within a weak steering environment. In the next 24
to 36 hours, a subtropical ridge (str) to the southeast of the
system will build back to the west, engaging a stronger steering
environment, taking tc Ula to the southwest. During this period, a
favorable environment will provide for a slow period of development,
allowing the maximum intensity to reach 65 knots by tau 24, and
persisting through tau 48. Beyond that timeframe, decreasing SSTs
and a less favorable upper level flow pattern will cause a slow
weakening trend to develop. In the later portions of the forecast,
these influences will become more pronounced, with greater mid-
latitude interaction around tau 96 and will begin a transition of
the system to an extra-tropical circulation. The str will build over
the forecast area, causing an eventual acceleration into the mid-
latitude westerlies by tau 120. Model guidance remains in good
agreement with this scenario and lends high confidence to the
forecast track. Maximum significant wave height at 080600z is 18
feet. Next warnings at 082100z and 090900z.//
www.wunderground.com/hurricane/south-pacific/2016/tropical-cyclone-Ula?text=public
Suva, Fiji, has tracked west-northwestward at 02 knots over the past
six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows deep
convection over the low level circulation center has been building
over the past six hours, with a sharp edge along the eastern edge,
associated with low levels (10 to 15 knots) of easterly vertical
wind shear (vws), which is supporting the favorable levels of
westerly outflow. Sea surface temperatures (ssts) remain weakly
favorable, in the 27 to 28 degrees celsius range, as tc 06p tracks
slowly westward within a weak steering environment. In the next 24
to 36 hours, a subtropical ridge (str) to the southeast of the
system will build back to the west, engaging a stronger steering
environment, taking tc Ula to the southwest. During this period, a
favorable environment will provide for a slow period of development,
allowing the maximum intensity to reach 65 knots by tau 24, and
persisting through tau 48. Beyond that timeframe, decreasing SSTs
and a less favorable upper level flow pattern will cause a slow
weakening trend to develop. In the later portions of the forecast,
these influences will become more pronounced, with greater mid-
latitude interaction around tau 96 and will begin a transition of
the system to an extra-tropical circulation. The str will build over
the forecast area, causing an eventual acceleration into the mid-
latitude westerlies by tau 120. Model guidance remains in good
agreement with this scenario and lends high confidence to the
forecast track. Maximum significant wave height at 080600z is 18
feet. Next warnings at 082100z and 090900z.//
www.wunderground.com/hurricane/south-pacific/2016/tropical-cyclone-Ula?text=public